NWT Labour Market: Forecast

The Conference Board of Canada produced a set of economic forecasts and related occupational demand scenarios for the NWT in April 2022.

The three economic forecasts include a base case, and medium-growth and high-growth scenarios. The projected employment, or average size of the resident workforce, is expected to remain relatively constant in the base case scenario, while there will be some growth in the medium and high growth scenarios.

Each forecast scenario incorporates two kinds of occupational demand: replacement demand and expansion demand.

Replacement demand happens when employers must replace workers who have retired, died, or moved out of the territory. Replacement demand is responsible for most of NWT resident job opportunities over the next 20 years in all three economic scenarios. The high level of replacement demand reflects the aging population and relatively high levels of out-migration from the NWT on an annual basis.

Expansion demand comes from economic expansion, such as the opening of a new mine or the building of a new highway. This type of occupational demand creates new jobs in the economy; but when the economy contracts, existing jobs may also be lost.

By 2040, the highest demand for job openings will be to replace retirees and workers leaving the NWT. By 2040, it is forecasted there will be 13,434 job openings in the NWT. Approximately 69% of these job openings typically require some form of post- secondary education and/or extensive work experience and seniority.